fix(scaffold): quality-gate law — transition-to-closed refuses without contract_quality evidence + post-hoc quality for the two lapsed closes (hook_engine, adaptive_router)

src/rune/scaffold.py

@@ -486,6 +486,21 @@ class Scaffold:
             raise IllegalPhaseTransition(
                 f"illegal transition: {current} → {phase} (legal: {sorted(LEGAL_TRANSITIONS.get(current, set()))})"
             )
+        # QUALITY-GATE LAW (2026-10-13): entering `closed` via raw transition
+        # bypassed the predicted-vs-observed computation entirely — two wave
+        # landings (hook_engine, adaptive_router 2026-10-13) closed with a
+        # 'closed' phase and NO contract_quality, silently. The designed
+        # entry is close() (computes quality + material-change). Raw
+        # transition to closed now requires the quality to ALREADY be
+        # recorded (e.g. close_contract ran in this process); otherwise it
+        # refuses — the quality gate is mechanical, not advisory.
+        if phase == "closed":
+            if not e.get("ext", {}).get("contract_quality"):
+                raise IllegalPhaseTransition(
+                    f"transition to 'closed' requires contract_quality evidence — "
+                    f"close the contract via close() (predicted-vs-observed), "
+                    f"not a raw transition ({contract_id})"
+                )
         e["phase"] = phase
         if phase == "closed":
             e["status"] = "closed"