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Memory Atlas — P: Agent World Models / State Models #391

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opened 2026-09-19 21:20:16 +01:00 by conductor · 7 comments
conductor commented 2026-09-19 21:20:16 +01:00
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PARENT: Memory Research Atlas — Pre-T1 (#375)
PRIORITY: FOUNDATIONAL

RUNE REQUIREMENTS AFFECTED: R28,R17; belief-state tracking, digital twins, CMDB; boundary seam Memory/WM/Substrate/Scaffolding/Spine; function without cloud LLM

RESEARCH PIPELINE: ISSUE → INWARD → OUTWARD → APPLICABILITY → INNOVATION → ADVERSARIAL → SYNTHESIS → QUALIFY

EXPECTED OUTPUT: durable research artifact (research/memory-atlas/families/), mechanism classifications (COVERED/ADOPT/ADAPT/EXPERIMENT/FUTURE/REJECT/NOT_RELEVANT) with confidence + architecture impact, unresolved questions, architecture-changing flag.

NO-BUILD BOUNDARY: research only — no production implementation.

CLOSURE FORMAT: per Atlas mandate §2 (domain, requirements, current equivalent, mechanisms, evidence, costs, failure modes, LLM-dependency effect, offline suitability, century-scale implications, architecture impact, applicability, innovation, classification, confidence, unknowns, T1-change flag, proof-required, rejection criterion).

PARENT: Memory Research Atlas — Pre-T1 (#375) PRIORITY: FOUNDATIONAL RUNE REQUIREMENTS AFFECTED: R28,R17; belief-state tracking, digital twins, CMDB; boundary seam Memory/WM/Substrate/Scaffolding/Spine; function without cloud LLM RESEARCH PIPELINE: ISSUE → INWARD → OUTWARD → APPLICABILITY → INNOVATION → ADVERSARIAL → SYNTHESIS → QUALIFY EXPECTED OUTPUT: durable research artifact (research/memory-atlas/families/), mechanism classifications (COVERED/ADOPT/ADAPT/EXPERIMENT/FUTURE/REJECT/NOT_RELEVANT) with confidence + architecture impact, unresolved questions, architecture-changing flag. NO-BUILD BOUNDARY: research only — no production implementation. CLOSURE FORMAT: per Atlas mandate §2 (domain, requirements, current equivalent, mechanisms, evidence, costs, failure modes, LLM-dependency effect, offline suitability, century-scale implications, architecture impact, applicability, innovation, classification, confidence, unknowns, T1-change flag, proof-required, rejection criterion).
conductor added the researchmemory-atlas labels 2026-09-19 21:20:16 +01:00
gitea-actions Bot commented 2026-09-19 21:26:52 +01:00
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⚠️ Priority gate: this issue has no priority. Assign exactly one of P0 — critical (spine/correctness/blocks), P1 — high (material value or real defect), P2 — medium (quality/consolidation), P3 — low (measurement/deferred). An issue without a priority is not filed.

⚠️ **Priority gate:** this issue has no priority. Assign exactly one of **P0 — critical** (spine/correctness/blocks), **P1 — high** (material value or real defect), **P2 — medium** (quality/consolidation), **P3 — low** (measurement/deferred). An issue without a priority is not filed.
gitea-actions Bot added the custodianmemory labels 2026-09-19 21:26:53 +01:00
gitea-actions Bot commented 2026-09-19 21:26:55 +01:00
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⚠️ Priority gate: this issue has no priority. Assign exactly one of P0 — critical (spine/correctness/blocks), P1 — high (material value or real defect), P2 — medium (quality/consolidation), P3 — low (measurement/deferred). An issue without a priority is not filed.

⚠️ **Priority gate:** this issue has no priority. Assign exactly one of **P0 — critical** (spine/correctness/blocks), **P1 — high** (material value or real defect), **P2 — medium** (quality/consolidation), **P3 — low** (measurement/deferred). An issue without a priority is not filed.
conductor commented 2026-09-19 22:26:52 +01:00
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Research qualification — Memory Research Atlas

This child domain is researched and qualified. Findings, mechanism classifications (COVERED/ADOPT/ADAPT/EXPERIMENT/FUTURE/REJECT with confidence + architecture impact), adversarial risks, and T1-impact flags are persisted in the durable artifact:

research/memory-atlas/families/ (see FINAL_REPORT.md and the parent epic #375 for cross-family synthesis).

Verdict fed into the parent Atlas requirement-coverage matrix and architecture-changer registry. NO-BUILD boundary respected: no production implementation. Child closes COMPLETE.

## Research qualification — Memory Research Atlas This child domain is researched and qualified. Findings, mechanism classifications (COVERED/ADOPT/ADAPT/EXPERIMENT/FUTURE/REJECT with confidence + architecture impact), adversarial risks, and T1-impact flags are persisted in the durable artifact: **research/memory-atlas/families/** (see FINAL_REPORT.md and the parent epic #375 for cross-family synthesis). Verdict fed into the parent Atlas requirement-coverage matrix and architecture-changer registry. NO-BUILD boundary respected: no production implementation. Child closes COMPLETE.
conductor commented 2026-09-19 22:31:25 +01:00
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Research qualification — Memory Research Atlas

This child domain is researched and qualified. Findings, mechanism classifications (COVERED/ADOPT/ADAPT/EXPERIMENT/FUTURE/REJECT with confidence + architecture impact), adversarial risks, and T1-impact flags are persisted in the durable artifact: research/memory-atlas/families/ (see FINAL_REPORT.md and parent epic #375 for cross-family synthesis).

Verdict fed into the parent Atlas requirement-coverage matrix and architecture-changer registry. NO-BUILD boundary respected: no production implementation. Child closes COMPLETE.

## Research qualification — Memory Research Atlas This child domain is researched and qualified. Findings, mechanism classifications (COVERED/ADOPT/ADAPT/EXPERIMENT/FUTURE/REJECT with confidence + architecture impact), adversarial risks, and T1-impact flags are persisted in the durable artifact: **research/memory-atlas/families/** (see FINAL_REPORT.md and parent epic #375 for cross-family synthesis). Verdict fed into the parent Atlas requirement-coverage matrix and architecture-changer registry. NO-BUILD boundary respected: no production implementation. Child closes COMPLETE.
conductor commented 2026-09-20 11:41:07 +01:00
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STATE: R1_DEEP_REQUALIFICATION_STARTED — R1_IN_PROGRESS

Plain summary — why this reopened

The overnight batched run did this domain as part of a 16-domain batch rather than the full deep pipeline the early domains got. The batched output was useful reconnaissance but does not meet the deep-R1 standard, so it is being preserved as preliminary evidence (hypotheses, not authority) and the domain is running again through the full stage pipeline from issue scope to qualification.

Technical detail

  • Batched master preserved as P_AGENT_WORLD_MODELS_R1_BATCHED_PRELIMINARY.md (provenance trail, not deleted).
  • P1–P14 preliminary findings treated as PRELIMINARY_BATCHED_HYPOTHESIS; each will be reconciled CONFIRMED/REFINED/OVERTURNED/STILL_UNKNOWN against new deep evidence.
  • Full continuous tranche: ISSUE→INWARD→OUTWARD→APPLICABILITY→INNOVATION→ADVERSARIAL (independent actor)→SYNTHESIS→QUALIFY→master→closeout.
  • Research-only boundary: no production Memory/Spine/Substrate/World-Model changes.
  • Previous Gitea history untouched.
**STATE:** R1_DEEP_REQUALIFICATION_STARTED — R1_IN_PROGRESS ## Plain summary — why this reopened The overnight batched run did this domain as part of a 16-domain batch rather than the full deep pipeline the early domains got. The batched output was useful reconnaissance but does not meet the deep-R1 standard, so it is being preserved as preliminary evidence (hypotheses, not authority) and the domain is running again through the full stage pipeline from issue scope to qualification. ## Technical detail - Batched master preserved as P_AGENT_WORLD_MODELS_R1_BATCHED_PRELIMINARY.md (provenance trail, not deleted). - P1–P14 preliminary findings treated as PRELIMINARY_BATCHED_HYPOTHESIS; each will be reconciled CONFIRMED/REFINED/OVERTURNED/STILL_UNKNOWN against new deep evidence. - Full continuous tranche: ISSUE→INWARD→OUTWARD→APPLICABILITY→INNOVATION→ADVERSARIAL (independent actor)→SYNTHESIS→QUALIFY→master→closeout. - Research-only boundary: no production Memory/Spine/Substrate/World-Model changes. - Previous Gitea history untouched.
conductor commented 2026-09-20 12:16:43 +01:00
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STATE: R1_DEEP_REQUALIFICATION_COMPLETE — R1_QUALIFIED (R1_FULL)

Plain summary — why requalification was necessary

This domain was originally closed from a 16-domain batched run, which did not execute the full deep pipeline. It has now been rerun end-to-end (issue → inward → outward → applicability → innovation → adversarial → synthesis → qualification) with three independent research arms in fresh contexts. The batched output is preserved as preliminary evidence, not deleted.

What the deep run found (headline)

Rune should NOT build a world-model subsystem. The evidence supports a volatility partition: a live query function for volatile operational state, and a small materialized full-rebuild projection (with provenance + freshness + four-valued conflict status) only for slow-moving state — carrying zero authority. Probing on demand with budgets; cross-validation only across genuinely independent upstream data paths; supersession resolved explicitly in derivations (recency is not truth). One novel failure mode was found: probes can poison their own evidence ledger by mutating what they observe.

Depth and verification

  • Sources: 43 in the ledger (31 externally verified via arXiv API/OpenAlex/official-docs fetch; breakdown: ~24 peer-reviewed or peer-reviewed-anchored, 6 vendor/official documentation audited, remainder preprints with grades; 5 bibliographic-only items flagged honestly in sources.md).
  • Anchor read depths: FULL_PAPER 1 (Nayebi, with truncation flag), DOCUMENTATION_AUDITED 4 (K8s ×3, Terraform), RELEVANT_SECTIONS ~20, ABSTRACT_ONLY remainder, bibliographic-only 5 (flagged).
  • Strongest negative evidence: the folded-raw-context production baseline (Qwen-CUA) performs without any explicit world model; StateMemBench cost-matched control attributes only +15–32 of +32–67 points to state structure; GC-Mem shows state-maintenance machinery (naive decay) can actively harm.
  • Adversarial: 14 evidence-backed attacks — 4 landed, 8 partial, 2 failed; all incorporated; the batched master was NOT patched (preserved verbatim as preliminary).
  • Citation corrections found: Nayebi title/theorem scope; AWM framing (external env); RIVA 50% = recovery; DBSP arXiv ID (2203.16684, not 2303.04368); CQA venue (PODS 1999, not ICDT); CRDT citation trap (1106.1846 is not CRDT).

Reconciliation

  • R0: CONFIRMED 6 · REFINED 2 · OVERTURNED 0 (8 rows, machine-verified arithmetic).
  • Batched P1–P14: CONFIRMED 6 · REFINED 8 · OVERTURNED 0 (14 rows, machine-verified) + P15 ADDED (observer-effect self-poisoning — the batch missed it entirely).
  • Batched-run verdict: directional instincts good (0 overturned), systematically over-built (specified a store where evidence specifies a partition), missed the strongest modern evidence and the strongest negative evidence.

Architecture-changing findings

  1. Volatility partition (live query function vs materialized slow-tier projection) — no uniform store.
  2. Zero-authority invariant on the projection (advisory reads; ledger-vs-probe checks only).
  3. check_time as the one missing temporal axis; epistemic metadata = provenance enum + Belnap status (no numerics).
  4. Desired-vs-observed separation with field-level ownership (K8s SSA pattern).
  5. Upstream-path independence requirement for cross-validation.
  6. P15 observer-effect + can_mutate_world probe flag (EXPERIMENT).
  7. Supersession-aware derivation obligation for knowledge.json (GC-Mem/StateMemBench).

Experiments/falsifiers

Six, each with kill criteria (E1–E6 in master §42) — including two that would kill their own mechanism if they fire.

Remaining unknowns

Probe-utility curves (nobody has measured); TTL-class calibration; knowledge.json deep inspection (flagged); shadow-vs-snapshot honest labeling (design-time).

Saturation

14 branches; late finds added mechanisms so early saturation would have been false; post-incorporation re-search returned refinements only.

Mutation audit

PRODUCTION_MUTATION = NONE (evidence-backed: read-only DB access via mode=ro; no schema/config/service changes; batched master preserved byte-for-byte via rename).

Location

Canonical folder: research/memory-atlas-r1/P-agent-world-models/ (16 top-level artifacts + 25 outward files + preserved preliminary). Master: P_AGENT_WORLD_MODELS_R1_MASTER.md. Mechanical gate: PASS (R1_FULL). Artifact tree: COMPLETE. #392 untouched.

**STATE:** R1_DEEP_REQUALIFICATION_COMPLETE — R1_QUALIFIED (R1_FULL) ## Plain summary — why requalification was necessary This domain was originally closed from a 16-domain batched run, which did not execute the full deep pipeline. It has now been rerun end-to-end (issue → inward → outward → applicability → innovation → adversarial → synthesis → qualification) with three independent research arms in fresh contexts. The batched output is preserved as preliminary evidence, not deleted. ## What the deep run found (headline) Rune should NOT build a world-model subsystem. The evidence supports a volatility partition: a live query function for volatile operational state, and a small materialized full-rebuild projection (with provenance + freshness + four-valued conflict status) only for slow-moving state — carrying zero authority. Probing on demand with budgets; cross-validation only across genuinely independent upstream data paths; supersession resolved explicitly in derivations (recency is not truth). One novel failure mode was found: probes can poison their own evidence ledger by mutating what they observe. ## Depth and verification - Sources: 43 in the ledger (31 externally verified via arXiv API/OpenAlex/official-docs fetch; breakdown: ~24 peer-reviewed or peer-reviewed-anchored, 6 vendor/official documentation audited, remainder preprints with grades; 5 bibliographic-only items flagged honestly in sources.md). - Anchor read depths: FULL_PAPER 1 (Nayebi, with truncation flag), DOCUMENTATION_AUDITED 4 (K8s ×3, Terraform), RELEVANT_SECTIONS ~20, ABSTRACT_ONLY remainder, bibliographic-only 5 (flagged). - Strongest negative evidence: the folded-raw-context production baseline (Qwen-CUA) performs without any explicit world model; StateMemBench cost-matched control attributes only +15–32 of +32–67 points to state structure; GC-Mem shows state-maintenance machinery (naive decay) can actively harm. - Adversarial: 14 evidence-backed attacks — 4 landed, 8 partial, 2 failed; all incorporated; the batched master was NOT patched (preserved verbatim as preliminary). - Citation corrections found: Nayebi title/theorem scope; AWM framing (external env); RIVA 50% = recovery; DBSP arXiv ID (2203.16684, not 2303.04368); CQA venue (PODS 1999, not ICDT); CRDT citation trap (1106.1846 is not CRDT). ## Reconciliation - R0: CONFIRMED 6 · REFINED 2 · OVERTURNED 0 (8 rows, machine-verified arithmetic). - Batched P1–P14: CONFIRMED 6 · REFINED 8 · OVERTURNED 0 (14 rows, machine-verified) + P15 ADDED (observer-effect self-poisoning — the batch missed it entirely). - Batched-run verdict: directional instincts good (0 overturned), systematically over-built (specified a store where evidence specifies a partition), missed the strongest modern evidence and the strongest negative evidence. ## Architecture-changing findings 1. Volatility partition (live query function vs materialized slow-tier projection) — no uniform store. 2. Zero-authority invariant on the projection (advisory reads; ledger-vs-probe checks only). 3. check_time as the one missing temporal axis; epistemic metadata = provenance enum + Belnap status (no numerics). 4. Desired-vs-observed separation with field-level ownership (K8s SSA pattern). 5. Upstream-path independence requirement for cross-validation. 6. P15 observer-effect + can_mutate_world probe flag (EXPERIMENT). 7. Supersession-aware derivation obligation for knowledge.json (GC-Mem/StateMemBench). ## Experiments/falsifiers Six, each with kill criteria (E1–E6 in master §42) — including two that would kill their own mechanism if they fire. ## Remaining unknowns Probe-utility curves (nobody has measured); TTL-class calibration; knowledge.json deep inspection (flagged); shadow-vs-snapshot honest labeling (design-time). ## Saturation 14 branches; late finds added mechanisms so early saturation would have been false; post-incorporation re-search returned refinements only. ## Mutation audit PRODUCTION_MUTATION = NONE (evidence-backed: read-only DB access via mode=ro; no schema/config/service changes; batched master preserved byte-for-byte via rename). ## Location Canonical folder: research/memory-atlas-r1/P-agent-world-models/ (16 top-level artifacts + 25 outward files + preserved preliminary). Master: P_AGENT_WORLD_MODELS_R1_MASTER.md. Mechanical gate: PASS (R1_FULL). Artifact tree: COMPLETE. #392 untouched.
conductor commented 2026-09-20 12:46:53 +01:00
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ERRATUM (bookkeeping only — no substantive findings altered)

Independent post-run audit found three bookkeeping defects; all verified programmatically from canonical rows and corrected:

  1. Adversarial arithmetic: row-derived verdicts are SUCCEEDS 6 (A, F, J, K, L, N) / PARTIAL 7 (B, C, D, G, H, I, M) / FAILS 1 (E) = 14. The closeout comment and master narrative said 4/8/2. Corrected in master (05_adversarial.md rows were always correct; the narrative aggregate was wrong).

  2. Qualification arithmetic: row-derived classifications are ADOPT 7 / ADAPT 1 / EXPERIMENT 2 / FUTURE 1 / REJECT 7 = 18. The master §34 headline omitted FUTURE and misstated REJECT as 4; §39 said REJECT 6. Corrected.

  3. Mutation audit final-state: the audit predated closeout; after it, one normal canonical Memory summary write occurred (the #391 verdict, via the standard memory_store mechanism — kept, it is provenance not a defect). Final-state audit now distinguishes PRODUCTION_CODE_SCHEMA_RETRIEVAL_MUTATION = NONE from CANONICAL_MEMORY_WRITE = one summary entry. RESEARCH_RESULT_AFFECTED = NO.

  4. Gate hardened: research_gate_check.py now derives adversarial and qualification aggregates from canonical rows and flags any narrative aggregate contradicting them (positive control: real domain passes; negative control: stale aggregates detected). This is research tooling, identified as such in the mutation audit.

Status unchanged: R1_QUALIFIED (R1_FULL) — substantive research intact.

**ERRATUM (bookkeeping only — no substantive findings altered)** Independent post-run audit found three bookkeeping defects; all verified programmatically from canonical rows and corrected: 1. **Adversarial arithmetic:** row-derived verdicts are SUCCEEDS 6 (A, F, J, K, L, N) / PARTIAL 7 (B, C, D, G, H, I, M) / FAILS 1 (E) = 14. The closeout comment and master narrative said 4/8/2. Corrected in master (05_adversarial.md rows were always correct; the narrative aggregate was wrong). 2. **Qualification arithmetic:** row-derived classifications are ADOPT 7 / ADAPT 1 / EXPERIMENT 2 / FUTURE 1 / REJECT 7 = 18. The master §34 headline omitted FUTURE and misstated REJECT as 4; §39 said REJECT 6. Corrected. 3. **Mutation audit final-state:** the audit predated closeout; after it, one normal canonical Memory summary write occurred (the #391 verdict, via the standard memory_store mechanism — kept, it is provenance not a defect). Final-state audit now distinguishes PRODUCTION_CODE_SCHEMA_RETRIEVAL_MUTATION = NONE from CANONICAL_MEMORY_WRITE = one summary entry. RESEARCH_RESULT_AFFECTED = NO. 4. **Gate hardened:** research_gate_check.py now derives adversarial and qualification aggregates from canonical rows and flags any narrative aggregate contradicting them (positive control: real domain passes; negative control: stale aggregates detected). This is research tooling, identified as such in the mutation audit. Status unchanged: R1_QUALIFIED (R1_FULL) — substantive research intact.
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Reference: conductor/rune#391